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バークシャーハサウェイ2015決算 バフェットからの手紙(6)


バークシャーハサウェイ(Berkshire Hathaway BRK)の決算を一部引用して解説します。以下引用は全てこちらからです。

今回はProductivity and Prosperity(生産性と繁栄)についての前半です。


Productivity and Prosperity(前半)

先ほど、Kraft Heinzが非効率性を根絶し、時間あたりの生産性を向上させていることを話しました。アメリカが建国されてから生活水準が大きく上がった秘密は、こうした改善なのです。悪いことに、「秘密」という言葉が適切です。本当に少数のアメリカ人しか、生産性と繁栄の関係を正確に理解していません。この関係を理解するために、農業とバークシャーの3つの事業分野を見てみましょう。

Earlier, I told you how our partners at Kraft Heinz root out inefficiencies, thereby increasing output per hour of employment. That kind of improvement has been the secret sauce of America’s remarkable gains in living standards since the nation’s founding in 1776. Unfortunately, the label of “secret” is appropriate: Too few Americans fully grasp the linkage between productivity and prosperity. To see that connection, let’s look first at the country’s most dramatic example – farming – and later examine three Berkshire-specific areas.


In 1900, America’s civilian work force numbered 28 million. Of these, 11 million, a staggering 40% of the total, worked in farming. The leading crop then, as now, was corn. About 90 million acres were devoted to its production and the yield per acre was 30 bushels, for a total output of 2.7 billion bushels annually.


Then came the tractor and one innovation after another that revolutionized such keys to farm productivity as planting, harvesting, irrigation, fertilization and seed quality. Today, we devote about 85 million acres to corn. Productivity, however, has improved yields to more than 150 bushels per acre, for an annual output of 13-14 billion bushels. Farmers have made similar gains with other products.


Increased yields, though, are only half the story: The huge increases in physical output have been accompanied by a dramatic reduction in the number of farm laborers (“human input”). Today about three million people work on farms, a tiny 2% of our 158-million-person work force. Thus, improved farming methods have allowed tens of millions of present-day workers to utilize their time and talents in other endeavors, a reallocation of human resources that enables Americans of today to enjoy huge quantities of non-farm goods and services they would otherwise lack.


It’s easy to look back over the 115-year span and realize how extraordinarily beneficial agricultural innovations have been – not just for farmers but, more broadly, for our entire society. We would not have anything close to the America we now know had we stifled those improvements in productivity. (It was fortunate that horses couldn’t vote.) On a day-to-day basis, however, talk of the “greater good” must have rung hollow to farm hands who lost their jobs to machines that performed routine tasks far more efficiently than humans ever could. We will examine this flip-side to productivity gains later in this section.


For the moment, however, let’s move on to three stories of efficiencies that have had major consequences for Berkshire subsidiaries. 

第二次世界大戦直後の1947年には、アメリカの労働人口は44M人で、約1.35M人の労働者が鉄道事業で働いていました。Class I 鉄道のton-milesは655Bでした。

In 1947, shortly after the end of World War II, the American workforce totaled 44 million. About 1.35 million workers were employed in the railroad industry. The revenue ton-miles of freight moved by Class I railroads that year totaled 655 billion.

2014年にはClass I 鉄道のton-milesは1.85Tとなり182%増加しました。一方、労働者数は187000で、1947年に比べて86%の減少です。この生産性の向上により、ton-mileあたりのインフレ調整済の価格は1947年から55%下がっています。もし鉄道輸送に1947年と同等の人手が必要だったとしたら、鉄道事業で働く人が3M人以上も必要になります。

By 2014, Class I railroads carried 1.85 trillion ton-miles, an increase of 182%, while employing only 187,000 workers, a reduction of 86% since 1947. (Some of this change involved passenger-related employees, but most of the workforce reduction came on the freight side.) As a result of this staggering improvement in productivity, the inflation-adjusted price for moving a ton-mile of freight has fallen by 55% since 1947, a drop saving shippers about $90 billion annually in current dollars. Another startling statistic: If it took as many people now to move freight as it did in 1947, we would need well over three million railroad workers to handle present volumes.

1995年のBurlington NorthernとSanta Feの合併によって、BNSFが発足しました。1996年には初年度を迎え、411M ton-milesを輸送し、45000人が働いていました。
昨年は、702M +71% ton-milesを輸送し、47000人 +4%が働いていました。この劇的な生産性の向上は株主にとっても顧客にとっても恩恵があります。安全性も向上していて、200000労働時間あたりの負傷は1996年に2.04だったところ、半分以上減少して0.95となっています。

Our own BNSF was formed in 1995 by a merger between Burlington Northern and Santa Fe. In 1996, the merged company’s first full year of operation, 411 million ton-miles of freight were transported by 45,000 employees. Last year the comparable figures were 702 million ton-miles (plus 71%) and 47,000 employees (plus only 4%). That dramatic gain in productivity benefits both owners and shippers. Safety at BNSF has improved as well: Reportable injuries were 2.04 per 200,000 man-hours in 1996 and have since fallen more than 50% to 0.95.


バークシャーハサウェイ2015決算 バフェットからの手紙(1) - Invest Shift

バークシャーハサウェイ2015決算 バフェットからの手紙(2) - Invest Shift

バークシャーハサウェイ2015決算 バフェットからの手紙(3) - Invest Shift

バークシャーハサウェイ2015決算 バフェットからの手紙(4) - Invest Shift

バークシャーハサウェイ2015決算 バフェットからの手紙(5) - Invest Shift

バークシャーハサウェイ2015決算 バフェットからの手紙(6) - Invest Shift

バークシャーハサウェイ2015決算 バフェットからの手紙(7) - Invest Shift

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