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マルチプル・コントラクション(multiple contraction)という言葉は聞いたことがなかったので調べてみました。


ぎゃあぁぁぁぁぁぁぁ アマゾン、ネットフリックス、テスラ、セールスフォース、フェイスブック、スターバックスなどが急落 マルチプル・コントラクションの恐ろしさ - Market Hack




What is multiple contraction? It's when growth stocks with high [price-to-earnings] multiples -- a 30 multiple is high, and anything above 40 is pretty astronomical, although this always depends on growth -- get lower multiples during a slowdown, even if they deliver on their earnings and their growth estimates. 

Sneak Preview: Beware Multiple Contraction - TheStreet


1. FRBが利上げしたら、それはインフレに対する恐れがある。インフレになると、特に高PER企業は将来の利益が減少する。

2. また、大きな理由は、ヘッジファンドや投資信託などの機関投資家の振る舞いが変わることだ。景気減速時には、機関投資家は高PER株を好まなくなる。だいたいのビジネスが上手くいかなくなるため、高PER株を信用しなくなる。

Multiple contraction happens during a slowdown for a number of reasons. First, if the Fed is raising rates, that means people are afraid of inflation. Stocks are mostly valued on the basis of their future earnings, and this is especially true of high-multiple stocks. When you have high inflation, the value of those future earnings decreases because the value of a dollar a year or two years from now is decreasing -- that's the definition of inflation. 
The big reason, though, has more to do with how investors behave, and here again I'm talking mostly about the big institutional hedge funds and mutual funds. During a slowdown the big players don't like to own high-multiple stocks. They feel like they're sticking their necks out if they own something with a P/E of 40, because the economy is slowing and they don't expect most businesses to do very well. The big funds don't have much conviction that these high-multiple stocks can deliver their earnings because of the slowdown.

Sneak Preview: Beware Multiple Contraction - TheStreet




During an economic slowdown with rising interest rates (a terrible environment, but a common one because at the beginning of an economic slowdown you still get a lot of inflation), most high-multiple stocks will get crushed when they report their earnings, even if they meet expectations. These companies must beat the expectations, otherwise they'll go down, because in a poor economic environment, their high multiples make them priced for perfection.
The good thing about multiple contraction is that most of these high-multiple stocks don't get really hurt until they actually report their earnings. That means as long as you're aware of the slowdown -- and it's not hard to notice a slowdown -- then you can get out before the pain starts.

Sneak Preview: Beware Multiple Contraction - Pg.2 - TheStreet






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