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キャタピラー(CAT)2019Q3決算 コンセンサスに届かず

Caterpillar(CAT)2019Q3

・発表日 2019/10/23 プレマーケット
・売上 $12.76B -5.6% コンセンサス予想より-$730M
・non-GAAP EPS $2.66 -7.6% コンセンサス予想より-$0.24
GAAP EPS $2.66
GAAP net income $1.49B
・Operating profit margin 15.8%(2018Q2 15.8%)
・2019FY 予想GAAP EPS $10.90〜11.40 
($12.06〜13.06から下方修正)

・決算発表後の株価 終値+1.23%
・2019FYコンセンサス予想PER 135.34/11.58=11.68
・2020FYコンセンサス予想PER 135.34/11.79=11.47
http://www.caterpillar.com/en/investors/quarterly-results.html

貿易戦争などによる不透明さから、ディーラーが在庫を圧縮したことによる業績への影響が大きかったとのことでした。

The primary factor impacting our third quarter results was lower volume driven by reductions in dealer inventory and lower-than-expected demand from end users. Sales and revenues declined 6% during the quarter mostly due to Construction Industries and Resource Industries. During the third quarter of 2018, dealers increased inventory by $800 million in anticipation of increasing end user demand. This compares to a decline of $400 million in dealer inventory during the third quarter of 2019, a quarter-to-quarter change of $1.2 billion. Although the retail sales data we released this morning reflected an increase of 6% for both machines and Energy & Transportation, we believe dealers reduced inventory due to uncertainty in the global economy resulting from trade tensions and other factors.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4298304-caterpillar-inc-cat-ceo-james-umpleby-q3-2019-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single

Q4の需要は前年比フラットを見込み、ガイダンスを引き下げています。

Based on those changes in dealer behavior I mentioned, we now expect about a $900 million reduction in dealer inventories in the fourth quarter versus a $200 million inventory build in Q4 last year. We also now assume flattish end user demand in the fourth quarter year-on-year. Previously, we had assumed end user demand would increase at a similar rate that we have seen throughout the year or about 4%. As we no longer expect to see dealer inventories -- inventory reduce by higher sales to end-users, this means that almost all of the inventory reduction has to come from lower shipments from Caterpillar to our dealers given that we now anticipate about a mid-single-digit decline in sales in the fourth quarter.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4298304-caterpillar-inc-cat-ceo-james-umpleby-q3-2019-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single

決算発表メモ

セグメントは「Construction Industries」「Resource Industries」「Energy & Transportation」「Financial Products」です。

「Construction Industries」売上 $5.68B -7% 利益 $940M -11%

「Resource Industries」売上 2.63B -12% 利益 $311M -25%

「Energy & Transportation」売上 $5.55B -2% 利益 $1.02B +5%

「Financial Products」売上 $845M +2% 利益 $218M +8%

地域別では、

North America 売上 $6.1B -3%

Latin America 売上 $1.21B +2%

EAME 売上 $2.76B -7%

Asia Pacific 売上 $2.68B -13%

 

 

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