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キャタピラー(CAT)2019Q3決算 コンセンサスに届かず


・発表日 2019/10/23 プレマーケット
・売上 $12.76B -5.6% コンセンサス予想より-$730M
・non-GAAP EPS $2.66 -7.6% コンセンサス予想より-$0.24
GAAP EPS $2.66
GAAP net income $1.49B
・Operating profit margin 15.8%(2018Q2 15.8%)
・2019FY 予想GAAP EPS $10.90〜11.40 

・決算発表後の株価 終値+1.23%
・2019FYコンセンサス予想PER 135.34/11.58=11.68
・2020FYコンセンサス予想PER 135.34/11.79=11.47


The primary factor impacting our third quarter results was lower volume driven by reductions in dealer inventory and lower-than-expected demand from end users. Sales and revenues declined 6% during the quarter mostly due to Construction Industries and Resource Industries. During the third quarter of 2018, dealers increased inventory by $800 million in anticipation of increasing end user demand. This compares to a decline of $400 million in dealer inventory during the third quarter of 2019, a quarter-to-quarter change of $1.2 billion. Although the retail sales data we released this morning reflected an increase of 6% for both machines and Energy & Transportation, we believe dealers reduced inventory due to uncertainty in the global economy resulting from trade tensions and other factors.


Based on those changes in dealer behavior I mentioned, we now expect about a $900 million reduction in dealer inventories in the fourth quarter versus a $200 million inventory build in Q4 last year. We also now assume flattish end user demand in the fourth quarter year-on-year. Previously, we had assumed end user demand would increase at a similar rate that we have seen throughout the year or about 4%. As we no longer expect to see dealer inventories -- inventory reduce by higher sales to end-users, this means that almost all of the inventory reduction has to come from lower shipments from Caterpillar to our dealers given that we now anticipate about a mid-single-digit decline in sales in the fourth quarter.


セグメントは「Construction Industries」「Resource Industries」「Energy & Transportation」「Financial Products」です。

「Construction Industries」売上 $5.68B -7% 利益 $940M -11%

「Resource Industries」売上 2.63B -12% 利益 $311M -25%

「Energy & Transportation」売上 $5.55B -2% 利益 $1.02B +5%

「Financial Products」売上 $845M +2% 利益 $218M +8%


North America 売上 $6.1B -3%

Latin America 売上 $1.21B +2%

EAME 売上 $2.76B -7%

Asia Pacific 売上 $2.68B -13%



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