McDonald's（MCD）2020Q1決算 3月の既存店売上高が大幅に減少

McDonald's（MCD）2021Q1

・発表日 2020/4/30 pre-market
・売上 $4.71B -6.2% コンセンサス予想より+$50M
・GAAP EPS $1.47 -15% コンセンサス予想より-$0.09
・GAAP net income $1.1B
・既存店売上高 -3.4%（コンセンサス予想 -3.4%）
・決算発表後の株価 終値で-0.14%
・2020FYコンセンサス予想PER 185.77/5.92=31.38
・2021FYコンセンサス予想PER 185.77/7.94=23.39
・https://news.mcdonalds.com/press/press-releases/financial-news

決算発表メモ

Total 既存店売上高 -3.4%

US 既存店売上高 +0.1%

International Operated 既存店売上高 -6.9%

International Developmental Licenced 既存店売上高 -4.3%

Total 既存店売上高（3月のみ） -22.2%

US 既存店売上高（3月のみ）-13.4%

International Operated 既存店売上高（3月のみ） -34.7%

International Developmental Licenced 既存店売上高（3月のみ） -19.4%

 

Mastercard（MA）2020Q1決算 好決算

MasterCard（MA）2020Q1

・発表日 2020/4/29 pre-market
・売上 $4B +2.8% コンセンサス予想より+$20M
・non-GAAP EPS $1.83 +2.8% コンセンサス予想より+$0.10
・GAAP EPS $1.68
・GAAP net income $1.7B
・non-GAAP operating margin 55.4%（2019Q1 56.9%）
・決算発表後の株価 終値で+7.21%
・2020FYコンセンサス予想PER 283.69/7.28=38.96
・2021FYコンセンサス予想PER 283.69/9.23=30.73
・https://investor.mastercard.com/investor-relations/default.aspx

card present（カードを提示する対面取引）かどうか、Non-T&E（Travel and Entertainment）かどうかで利用量に大きな差があります。

決算発表メモ

GDV $1.56T +5.5%

内訳としては、

Credit $810B +9.4%

Debit/Prepaid $755B +1.7%

Switched transactions 22.1B +15.1%

Cards 2.63B +5.1%

売上の内訳としては、

Domestic Assessments 売上 $1.68B +5%（為替を除くと+8%）

Cross-Border Volume Fees 売上 $1.21B -4%（為替を除くと-2%）

Transaction Processing Fees 売上 $2.2B +14%（為替を除くと+16%）

Other 売上 $1.06B +26%（為替を除くと+28%）

Rebates and Incentives 費用 $2.15B +24%（為替を除くと+26%）

 

ResMed（RMD）2020Q3決算 好決算

ResMed（RMD）2020Q3

・発表日 2020/4/30 post-market
・売上 $769.46M +16.2% コンセンサス予想より+$48.04M
・non-GAAP EPS $1.29 +44.9% コンセンサス予想より+$0.21
・GAAP EPS $1.12
・GAAP net income $163M
・non-GAAP gross margin 60%（2019Q3 59.3%）
・決算発表後の株価 post-marketで+5.76%
・2020FYコンセンサス予想PER 162/4.11=39.41
・2021FYコンセンサス予想PER 162/4.57=35.44
・http://investors.resmed.com/investor-relations/events-and-presentations/default.aspx

人工呼吸器の売上増加と睡眠時無呼吸症候群用デバイスの売上低下の要素があり、今後の見通しは不透明とのことです。

As we look forward, there is uncertainty and it's not clear to what extent the upsurge in ventilation device and ventilation mask revenue will offset the decline in sleep device revenue and whether sleep mask revenue will maintain its growth or decelerate somewhat. But we know these facts, number one, the sleep apnea prevalence remains incredibly high, over 936 million people worldwide. And we know, fact two, that there is a backlog of diagnostic activity for sleep apnea and COPD that many clinics and physicians are preparing to ramp up their home sleep apnea testing, both now during the crisis and in the future as lockdowns are lifted around the world.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4341809-resmed-inc-rmd-ceo-michael-farrell-on-q3-2020-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single

決算発表メモ

Devices 売上 $391.5M +16%（為替を除くと+18%）

Masks and other 売上 $288.4M +17%（為替を除くと+18%）

Software as a service 売上 $89.6M +12%（為替を除くと+12%）

地域別では、

U.S., Canada and Latin America 売上 $483.1M +12%

Combined Europe, Asia and other markets 売上 $286.3M +23%（為替を除くと+27%）

 

 

Amazon（AMZN）2020Q1決算 来期はCOVID-19対策のため利益なし

Amazon（AMZN）2020Q1

・発表日 2020/4/30 post-market
・売上 $75.5B +26.5% コンセンサス予想より+$1.41B
・GAAP EPS $5.01 コンセンサス予想より-$1.10
・GAAP net income $2.53B
・AWS 売上 $10.2B +32.7%（コンセンサス予想 $10.3B）
・Operating margin 5.3%（2019Q1 7.4%）
・2020Q2 予想売上 $75〜81B（コンセンサス予想 $77.9B）
・決算発表後の株価 post-marketで-5.2%
・2020FYコンセンサス予想PER 2351.11/28.03=83.87
・2021FYコンセンサス予想PER 2351.11/40.77=57.66
・https://ir.aboutamazon.com/quarterly-results

2020Q2では$4B以上をCOVID-19対策に使用すると宣言しています。つまり、利益はゼロもしくはマイナスです。

“From online shopping to AWS to Prime Video and Fire TV, the current crisis is demonstrating the adaptability and durability of Amazon’s business as never before, but it’s also the hardest time we’ve ever faced,” said Jeff Bezos, Amazon founder and CEO. “We are inspired by all the essential workers we see doing their jobs — nurses and doctors, grocery store cashiers, police officers, and our own extraordinary frontline employees. The service we provide has never been more critical, and the people doing the frontline work — our employees and all the contractors throughout our supply chain — are counting on us to keep them safe as they do that work. We’re not going to let them down. Providing for customers and protecting employees as this crisis continues for more months is going to take skill, humility, invention, and money. If you’re a shareowner in Amazon, you may want to take a seat, because we’re not thinking small. Under normal circumstances, in this coming Q2, we’d expect to make some $4 billion or more in operating profit. But these aren’t normal circumstances. Instead, we expect to spend the entirety of that $4 billion, and perhaps a bit more, on COVID-related expenses getting products to customers and keeping employees safe. This includes investments in personal protective equipment, enhanced cleaning of our facilities, less efficient process paths that better allow for effective social distancing, higher wages for hourly teams, and hundreds of millions to develop our own COVID-19 testing capabilities. There is a lot of uncertainty in the world right now, and the best investment we can make is in the safety and well-being of our hundreds of thousands of employees. I’m confident that our long-term oriented shareowners will understand and embrace our approach, and that in fact they would expect no less.”

https://ir.aboutamazon.com/news-release/news-release-details/2020/Amazoncom-Announces-First-Quarter/

決算発表メモ

Operating cash flow（ttm）$39.7B +16%

Free cash flow（ttm）$24.3B +5.6%

「North America」

売上 $46.12B +28.8% 利益 $1.31B -42.6%

Operating margin 3.4%（2019Q1 5.7%）

「International」

売上 $19.1B +17.9% 利益 -$398M（2019Q1 -$90M）

Operating margin -2.6%（2019Q1 -2.4%）

「AWS」

売上 $10.21B +32.7% 利益 $3.07B +19.2%

Operating margin 26.8%（2019Q1 29.1%）

業態別では、

Online Stores 売上 $36.65B +24%

Physical Stores 売上 $4.64B +8%

Third-party seller services 売上 $14.47B +30%

Subscription services 売上 $5.55B +28%

AWS 売上 $10.21B +33%

Other（主に広告事業）売上 $3.9B +44%

 

2020/5/1 続落

インデックス・金利・為替

インデックスは続落しています。

米中対立のニュースやAMZNの失望決算がありました。

米政権 “中国に制裁や賠償金請求を検討” 新型コロナで米報道 | NHKニュース

name	price	change	YTD
DOW	23723.69	-622.03(-2.55%)	-16.87%
S&P500	2830.71	-81.72(-2.81%)	-12.38%
NASDAQ	8604.95	-284.6(-3.2%)	-4.10%
VIX	37.19	−	−
VTI	141.81	-4.03(-2.76%)	-13.33%
TLT	167.95	1.43(0.86%)	23.97%
BND	87.3	-0.04(-0.05%)	4.10%
US 10y treasury	0.642	−	-66.55%
US 30y treasury	1.278	−	-46.50%
USDJPY	106.93	-0.37(-0.34%)	-1.62%
USDEUR	0.9014	-0.0123(-1.35%)	1.14%
EURJPY	118.63	1.21(1.03%)	-2.75%
HYG	78.68	-1.38(-1.72%)	-10.53%
HANGSENG	24643.59	67.63(0.28%)	-12.98%
NIKKEI225	19619.35	-574.34(-2.84%)	-17.07%
TOPIX	1431.26	-32.77(-2.24%)	-16.85%
SPDR GLD	159.78	0.98(0.62%)	11.81%

セクター

ticker	name	price	change	YTD
XLY	一般消費財	112.24	-4.36(-3.74%)	-10.51%
XLC	コミュニケーション	49.58	-0.7(-1.39%)	-7.55%
XLE	エネルギー	35.85	-2.15(-5.66%)	-40.29%
XLF	金融	22.06	-0.73(-3.2%)	-28.33%
XLK	テクノロジー	88.9	-2.51(-2.75%)	-3.02%
XLU	公益	55.88	-1.38(-2.41%)	-13.53%
XLI	資本財	62.27	-1.94(-3.02%)	-23.57%
XLP	生活必需品	57.62	-0.64(-1.1%)	-8.51%
XLB	素材	50.79	-1.09(-2.1%)	-17.31%
XLV	ヘルスケア	97.83	-1.9(-1.91%)	-3.96%
XLRE	不動産	32.88	-1.04(-3.07%)	-14.97%

投資状況

	ticker	price	change	YTD perf
1	MSFT	174.57	-4.64(-2.59%)	10.70%
2	現金	0	0	12.47%
3	現金	0	0	0.00%
4	現金	0	0	-5.92%
5	現金	0	0	0.00%
	average			3.45%

計算の都合上、実際のパフォーマンスとは少し差があります。

投資状況（上記以外のインデックスや投資信託は除く）

2020.01.01 現金：投資＝70：30 でスタート

1:MSFT 2:現金 3:現金 4:HKG:2318 5:現金

2020.03.25 現金：投資＝80：20 HKG:2318 損切り

2020.04.01 現金：投資＝60：40 QQQ 購入

2020.04.15 現金：投資＝80：20 QQQ 売却